Who Would Want Miguel Cabrera?

While it's been made clear that the Tigers are trying to shed payroll this offseason in some way, there had been little discussion about the possibility of the Tigers dealing superstar first baseman Miguel Cabrera until this morning, when Lynn Henning of The Detroit News discussed the topic after comments made by Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski.

Moving Cabrera, 27 next April, could make sense for the Tigers if they don't believe that they're World Series contenders next season, given that Cabrera is due $126M through 2015 and is relatively limited by the fact that he's relegated to first base or designated hitter and there are some small character issues. But on the flip side, few hitters have accomplished more before turning 27 than Cabrera.

Cabrera has a career .311/.383/.542 line and a .389 wOBA in seven seasons with the Tigers and Florida Marlins, getting time at third base and left field before settling in at first base in 2008. He's had at least 65 extra-base hits in each season, four seasons with a BA above .320 and an OBP above .385, and four seasons with a wOBA over .399, with an ISO above .219 in every season. He's an elite hitter showing no signs of slowing down, he's played in 157+ games in every season since becoming an everyday player at the age of 21, and he even posted a solid, above-average 3.1 UZR as Detroit's everyday first baseman in 2009, although the sample size was small. To put it simply, Cabrera is one of the very best hitters, and players, in the game.

But still, you can essentially limit trade partners to big-market teams with a hole at first base or designated hitter, and that cuts out a major part of the market.

The Yankees likely can't fit Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez AND Miguel Cabrera on their payroll, given that A-Rod could very well end up at DH within a few years, and you're not putting Teixeira or Cabrera in a different spot on the field. The Cubs have Derrek Lee for 2010 and very limited payroll flexibility, they're more likely to pursue Curtis Granderson in trade talks with Detroit. The Angels could be a landing spot, but they also are already set at first base long-term with Kendry Morales. The Phillies have Ryan Howard, the Astros have Lance Berkman, and the Rangers have Justin Smoak, which pretty much knocks them all out of the running.

That leaves you with the Dodgers, White Sox, Red Sox, Giants, Mariners, Braves and Mets as the only realistic trade partners for Detroit.

The Braves, Dodgers, Giants and White Sox aren't particularly likely to pursue Cabrera, either. Atlanta probably doesn't have the money, for the White Sox, neither team probably don't want to trade that kind of talent within the division, the Giants probably don't want to have Cabrera and Sandoval around long-term due the defensive issues it would create, and the Dodgers are more likely to pursue help for the starting rotation than focus on Cabrera.

So realistically, it would be between the Mariners, Red Sox and Mets.

The Mariners could presumably start a package with Carlos Triunfel, Phillippe Aumont, J.P. Ramirez and one of the outfielders (Halman, Saunders, Raben). Basically, anyone but Dustin Ackley. But one major concern with the Mariners adding Cabrera is the impact that it could have on their efforts to retain Felix Hernandez, presumably the player that they would much rather have.

The Mets would likely have to start a package with Ike Davis, Fernando Martinez and Brad Holt, I'm not sure if the Tigers could ask for both Wilmer Flores and Jennry Meija if they expect the Mets to take on the entire contract. I think that the Mets could be a fit if they can afford the money.

The Red Sox are the other good fit, they have the hole at DH long-term and the need for an impact bat, can easily afford Cabrera's contract, and have talent that would definitely interest Detroit. A package could presumably start with Clay Buchholz, but even if Boston didn't want to surrender him in an effort to win-now, they could likely get Detroit's attention with a package based around Casey Kelly and/or Ryan Westmoreland, with other prospects like Michael Bowden, Josh Reddick, Ryan Kalish, Michael Almanzar, Yamaico Navarro, Oscar Tejeda, Anthony Rizzo, Lars Anderson, and Derrik Gibson.

Realistically, I think that Cabrera either lands in New York or Boston (shocker), and trading him probably wouldn't be the worst idea for Detroit if they can get an impressive package. While he's a great player, he's expensive, and the Tigers could build a dominant team around Justin Verlander (who needs to be paid after 2011, when he's due to hit free agency) when all of the bad contracts finish after 2010 and 2011.

AL MVP Ballot Oddities

Today, the BBWAA announced that Minnesota Twins catcher Joe Mauer was voted American League MVP. While his victory was unsurprising, he just posted a .438 wOBA as an above-average defensive catcher and he received 27 of 28 first-place votes, there were numerous other surprises to keep us entertained. Let's dig into the ones I saw:

Bobby Abreu: 2 fifth-place votes, 9 votes overall, 23 points

Listen, I get that Abreu's patient approach supposedly transformed the Angels' slap-happy, energetic offense into a pitch-taking, on-base machine, but how is a below-average defensive right fielder with a .365 wOBA (which takes SB/CS into account) one of the five most valuable players in the league?

Carl Crawford, who posted an identical wOBA while playing elite defense and stealing 60 bases, didn't even receive ONE vote on a single ballot, but Abreu gets votes on nine different ballots? Yeah, Abreu gets bonus points for being on a playoff team and the whole "nice story" thing, but how is Abreu remotely as valuable as Crawford?

The guy with the 13th-best wOBA among everyday AL outfielders while posting a -11.0 UZR was really an MVP candidate?

Aaron Hill: 1 fourth-place vote, 8 votes overall, 23 points

Just like with Abreu, I get how a well-regarded defensive second baseman who hits .286 with 36 home runs, 37 doubles and 108 RBI might garner some MVP votes. But at the same time, how do you ignore the numerous flaws in his candidacy?

Hill's 5.8% walk rate was the worst of his career and led to a very mediocre .330 OBP, which combined with his lack of value in terms of stolen bases, adds up to a .357 wOBA. While that's certainly an impressive mark, it's still only fifth among everyday AL second baseman, behind Ben Zobrist, Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano.

And while UZR certainly has its flaws, especially in a sample size of only 156 games, it's certainly worth acknowledging his -2.3 UZR from this season, and the possibility that his defense won't quite return to the level that it was at before the major injuries of last season.

Hill is a great player, but unless you're only using traditional manners of evaluation (BA, HR, RBI, Runs, etc.), he just hasn't been one of the 10 most valuable players in the AL.

Placido Polanco: 1 ninth-place vote

Essentially every player that got an MVP vote is a great player, it's just that some great players had more valuable seasons than others, obviously. With Placido Polanco, I just don't get what's going on.

How does a second baseman with a .285/.331/.396 line garner even one MVP vote? Even if he's pretty good defensively, Polanco is not much more than a solid everyday player, and it's not even like his team made the playoffs this season.

I would just really love to know the explanation behind that one, because I'm sure that it must be exceptionally warped.

And finally: Where's the lack of love for Zack Greinke?

I know, I know, pitchers generally aren't considered in MVP voting, even though they're allowed to be, and how could Greinke be so valuable if the Royals were so awful?

Well, according to WAR, Greinke was easily the most valuable player IN THE GAME, his 9.4 WAR, Rays 2B Ben Zobrist finished second with a 8.6 WAR and Albert Pujols was third with an 8.4 WAR. Mauer certainly would have finished with a better mark than his 8.2 WAR if UZR actually rated defense for catchers, because Mauer is regarded as above-average and UZR, and WAR as a function of that, assumes that all catchers are league average defensively.

I know that WAR has numerous flaws, but wouldn't it seem that the guy that posted the highest WAR in baseball in 2009 would deserve more than one fifth-place vote, one sixth-place vote, one ninth-place vote and one tenth-place vote?

Luckily, the voters got the biggest part of the voting process right, and that was that they recognized that Joe Mauer was the most valuable player in the AL.

Cy Young Voters Get It Right

I'm not going to spend too much time on this. But let me just say that for once, I can happily say that the Cy Young Award voters actually voted for the best pitcher in each league, rather than the pitcher with the most wins.

In the American League, Greinke was the best pitcher, and it wasn't even close. His 2.16 ERA and 2.33 FIP were miles ahead of the rest of the league, and his 3.36 xFIP was behind only Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay and Boston lefty Jon Lester, both of whom lacked the other statistics necessary to challenge Greinke. His 9.4 WAR was easily the best in the game, and the guy who placed second, Tigers ace Justin Verlander, posted an 8.2 WAR, paling in comparison to Greinke. He showed brilliant command and control, walking just 51 in 229 innings, and missed lots of bats, only Halladay posted a better K/BB ratio, thanks to Doc's shockingly good walk rate this year. Overall though, in spite of pitching on one of the worst teams in the league, Greinke quietly was the best pitcher in the American League, and it's nice to see that voters were able to look past his W-L record and the general suckiness of the Royals, which wasn't remotely Greinke's fault. I think that there's pretty good merit to the argument that Greinke just had the best season by a pitcher since Pedro Martinez in 2000.

My AL Cy Ballot: 1. Zack Greinke 2. Justin Verlander 3. Felix Hernandez

As for the National League, it was a bit tighter, with Lincecum, Cardinals aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright, Atlanta ace Javier Vazquez and Arizona ace Dan Haren all having pretty great seasons. Lincecum was just a bit ahead of everyone else though, his 8.2 WAR easily beat out Vazquez's second-place 6.6 WAR. He posted the best strikeout rate, the third-lowest home run rate, the sixth-best K/BB ratio, and his 2.34 FIP easily outpaced Vazquez (2.77) and Carpenter (2.78). Vazquez posted a slightly lower 2.89 xFIP compared to Lincecum's 2.94 mark, but those were still the best two marks in the league, and Lincecum was harder to hit and that was reflected in his ERA and batted ball percentages. Vazquez could have challenged Lincecum if he didn't have those extra three losses, but he just never stood a chance with a 15-10 record given the performances of the other candidates. Certainly, Carpenter and Wainwright had seasons that would be worthy of Cy Young recognition, but at this point, it's pretty clear that Tim Lincecum is the best pitcher in National League.

My NL Cy Ballot: 1. Tim Lincecum 2. Javier Vazquez 3. Chris Carpenter

Glad to see that arguably the two best pitchers in the game got the recognition that they deserved, Lincecum and Greinke should be among the best for years to come.

Cubs Shouldn't Trade Castro for Granderson

In his blog post today, ESPN's Keith Law (Insider only) suggested that the Cubs could easily land Tigers center fielder Curtis Granderson if they were willing to deal shortstop Starlin Castro and third baseman Josh Vitters in the same package.

I, for one, am very against such an idea for the Cubs. While that deal would certainly improve the 2010 Cubs, given their long-term contractual obligations, they simply shouldn't be looking to deal those kinds of players. The Cubs already owe significant money to Zambrano, Ramirez, Soriano, Dempster, Fukudome and Bradley, and they need a productive farm system to fill in the gaps.

Castro, 19, is the Cubs' best prospect and arguably the best shortstop in the minor leagues. He could potentially take over as Chicago's everyday shortstop in 2011, enabling them to move current everyday shortstop Ryan Theriot to second base, improving the team at two positions.

While Vitters, 20, hasn't developed as quickly as Castro since being picked third overall in the 2007 Rule IV draft, he's still one of the best pure hitting prospects in the game. His biggest flaw is a developing approach at the plate, he rarely walked in A ball in 2009, although his relatively low strikeout rate reflects his impressive hitting ability. He's not great defensively, but he should be able to stick there if his bat develops properly.

Given that Granderson is a pretty flawed player, he's essentially only playable against right-handed pitchers, I just don't see how the Cubs can afford to gut their farm system to get him, especially if it means including Castro, the kind of piece that the Cubs should build around.

At the core though, the Cubs need to focus on keeping Castro. Vitters still has a lot of development left, and if his bat doesn't pan out then it's not likely that he'll offer very much, compared to Castro, who's already good enough to play in the majors defensively.

If the Cubs could tempt the Tigers without including Castro or top pitchers Andrew Cashner and Jay Jackson, then I could certainly see a deal working out. The Cubs have other young shortstop prospects, Hak-Ju Lee, Ryan Flaherty and Junior Lake, specifically, that could entice the Tigers, and certainly Detroit could have some interest in using Jake Fox in the DH role.

Could the Cubs interest Detroit with an offer based around Vitters, Lee, Fox and a pitcher, such as Esmailyn Caridad, Jeff Stevens or Aaron Shafer? The big idea though, is to keep an eye on Starlin Castro.